Early week AI thoughts
As Microsoft Build is set to start today, there’s a good profile of Microsoft and Satya Nadella in Bloomberg:
In 2022, OpenAI held demonstrations for senior Microsoft executives of a groundbreaking new model. Over the next several months, groups inside Microsoft tinkered with other ways they might adapt OpenAI’s technology to the daily needs of the modern office worker. One promising prototype called “intelligent recap” would summarize conference calls in Teams. Before Microsoft could release any of it, though, OpenAI built a deceptively simple chat interface around its language engine, and people went nuts.
Until recently, we thought the race was purely to build better AI models. That’s still true, but the real strength is in products. OpenAI doesn’t just have GPT-4.1 and friends, they have a great Mac app, they have Codex, they have memory, they have Sora. When I first tried Sora, what struck me most was not the capabilities but all the work that went into the UI framework.
Microsoft has Copilot, a great name that can wrap together many different models and features. Anthropic has Artifacts, an elegant interface for iterating on code. Apple has a cobbled-together set of unrelated AI features, but at WWDC we’ll see the next phase of their vision.
This morning I was listening to this interview with Ben Stratechery. He talks about how the internet was the bridge from PCs that allowed mobile phones to take off. Likewise, AI will be the bridge to new devices, such as Meta’s glasses and whatever Jony Ive is working on.
I think there are only going to be a handful of companies that stay on the cutting edge of models. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and a second tier from xAI, Meta, maybe a couple of others. But there will be lots of competition around products.
There will be three broad categories and within each one, companies will try to build products that people will work into their lives:
- productivity — writing, presentations, research, coding
- enterprise — meetings, customer support, legal, automation
- life assistant — world knowledge, therapist, language, health
Right now, OpenAI has the lead in productivity. Microsoft in the enterprise. No one that I’ve seen has cracked the life assistant type of product. Apple could excel at this because of trust in privacy, but I’m not sure they can think with a big enough scope to nail it.