Fediverse predictions
Tim Chambers has his yearly predictions post for the open web. I enjoy these posts and I agree with most of his predictions for 2026.
But there is one prediction that I think is too optimistic:
The ActivityPub Fediverse (excluding Threads) will cross 15 million registered users, monthly active users […] will plateau around 2-3 million. Another good year in terms of stable base, but no big waves of new users. Both Bluesky and Fediverse growth won’t come from big waves of migration this year.
To put this in context, according to FediDB the current count of registered users is just short of 12 million. It has grown about 1 million users in each of the last couple of years. I know from Micro.blog’s contribution to these numbers that there are also spam accounts and other junk that has yet to be cleaned out, but still I think these numbers are mostly correct.
You can see this steady, slow growth in total users from this FediDB graph:
The problem is active users. There, we see occasional spikes as users migrate from Twitter / X, but generally the fediverse in terms of active users is shrinking, not growing. Absent some major event or new fediverse platform, I don’t expect active users to get much over 1 million again, let alone 2-3 million. Here’s the graph of the last couple of years:
January through April 2025 was the influx of users from Twitter / X, as Trump took office and Elon Musk went all-in on politics and culture wars. But a few months later that fediverse growth had evaporated, and active users today is apparently less than it was two years ago.
One way to view this is that the fediverse rises and falls naturally based on current events and popular software. Another way to view it is that the fediverse is in trouble, boxed in on one side by massive Bluesky growth and on the other side held back by the dominance of Mastodon.
Mastodon is an incredible success story, yet it still feels unapproachable for new users and it has changed very little in the last several years. I think Mastodon recreates some problems from Twitter in likes and boosts, fixes a few things such as an open protocol and more hands-on curation with small communities, while also adding new wrinkles in the form of local timelines leading to filter bubbles and pile-ons.
There is nothing wrong with Mastodon remaining a small platform in the context of Threads and Bluesky. If people are finding value in it, contributing to the open web, that’s great. But if I’m right that the fediverse has already plateaued, and we care about expanding indie blogging and open social networks, we must continue to adopt a plurality approach, not tied only to the ActivityPub-based fediverse. More platforms should have strong support for RSS and multiple social protocols, rooted in blogs and the broader open web.





































































































































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Thanks everyone for your support of Micro.blog this year! We’ve come a long way since I launched the






WWDC 2015 now feels like it took place in the distant past, not a month ago. For the last few years I’ve attended the NeXT-themed fundraiser for the Cartoon Art Museum, and this year 

I’ve written about


Although I had worked a little on iOS apps before, updating an existing app for the iPad and tinkering with unfinished apps, the first 1.0 for iOS that I played a significant role in just shipped last week: a “mobile version of Bookshelf”:







Every year my New Year’s resolutions look about the same: draw more, journal more. (Blogging more is never one of my resolutions, but I’m nevertheless off to a good start this year with a goal of about one new post a day.)



Wii Transfer has a full-page mini-tutorial in the May edition of “MacLife magazine”:


Along with most of our house, my office is packed up and ready to move this week. The photo to the right is of one of the handful of items in a box labeled “Manton’s desk,” or, if someone else had her way, “Random junk Manton saves to remember the past but which should really be in the trash can.”
Other highlights of WWDC 2007 were away from the sessions: walking Chinatown with




There were already at least 20 people there when I arrived. Several in line were hoping to reserve both Wii and PS3. One made the comment that they would be selling the PS3 on Ebay, but keep the Wii for themselves. There was even someone waiting for the new Elmo doll, which made the whole scene even more bizarre.






Easter is a time of rebirth and starting over. So today I’m flipping over two new things.
About 20 people met at the Frog Design building downtown a few months ago for the first 
Instead, adding features in context allows the application to grow without feeling too busy, and without distracting the user from the core set of features they are familiar with. The new user interface is discovered by using a new feature, and otherwise remains out of sight.



As I 
They warned of 70mph winds, massive flooding, and loss of power, but in the last days before landfall Hurricane Rita shifted north and Austin didn’t receive even a drop of rain. The organizers of Austin City Limits Music Festival were so proud of themselves for waiting to cancel the weekend concert series, but the evacuees were less pleased — stuck in Austin at shelters because the hotels were booked for an ACL in limbo.
I’m not sure I ever wanted to “grow up” to be a magician, but I was pretty fascinated with it as a kid, and more serious about it than most. I knew the disappearing quarter tricks, had the special card decks, the fancy scarfs and foam balls. Once I went to a magic auction and won a box that could make anything the size of a baby rabbit appear or disappear. And, always, there were the trips to North Austin to a small converted shed in the backyard of a house where The Great Scott sold his magic books and items for eager kids and professional magicians alike.
Apparently I wasn’t the only person to purchase
The GBA has a number of things going for it:
Last week I received The Incredibles DVD screener in the mail through my membership in 
See that little blue county in the expanse of red in the image on the right? That’s where I live.
The daylight savings time switch has helped me get up earlier, so I easily made it to my voting location by 7am this morning. There was already a line of people (perhaps 50) stretching outside. It was cold, from the front that came in yesterday, but it didn’t seem to bother anyone too much. No one gave up and left during the 45 minutes I was there.
Today is 




The weather was perfect today for the Zilker Kite Festival. It’s really incredible to see hundreds of kites flying overhead as you walk around. Homemade kites, children’s kites, giant kites, colorful kites. Kites shaped like cats, boats, dragons, snakes.

A new sketch group officially started up yesterday, led by local artist
Rick gave out copies of his comic book, Budget Strips;
Here are two pictures from the bookstore party last month. I picked up my copy at midnight with hundreds of other fans. I half expected a lot of crazies to show up, but it was all normal folks. Just people of all ages exciting about reading. A few dressed up. One woman let me take a picture of her Golden Snitch tattoo.


It snowed when I was about 5 years old and when I was maybe 10, so I assumed it would snow every 5 years. When you’re young, it’s easy to jump to conclusions and see patterns that don’t exist. Of course it hasn’t snowed since then.
McCloud’s “6 steps” (Idea/Purpose, Form, Idiom, Structure, Craft, and Surface) can be applied to many pursuits outside comics. To master the artform you need to progress through each of those steps, but often a comics fan decides he wants to “be a comic book artist.” He starts copying the surface qualities of the work (“look, I can draw Superman”), but rarely does he delve into it enough to go back to the other foundation steps: having a unique idea or purpose for the work, and understanding the form and structure of the medium enough to produce something great.

